# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will determine whether it reaches a specific view threshold within its opening 24 hours. The market currently prices a 61% probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders expect strong first-day performance. No new video has been posted in the past 48 hours, leaving the exact timing and content type uncertain—factors that materially affect initial velocity.

MrBeast's historical upload pattern shows considerable variance in day-one performance. His recent videos have consistently exceeded 50 million views within 24 hours, with several surpassing 100 million. However, content category matters substantially: collaboration videos and challenge formats typically outperform donation or experiment-focused uploads. The 61% implied probability reflects confidence in his audience's engagement baseline rather than certainty about any particular threshold, given his subscriber base of over 200 million provides a reliable floor for initial traffic.

Traders should monitor his social media for upload announcements, which typically drive coordinated viewership spikes. MrBeast occasionally schedules premieres with advance notice, which can suppress raw day-one numbers compared to surprise drops. The settlement window closes 14 June 2026, creating a hard deadline; any upload after 30 June 2026 triggers automatic resolution to the lowest bracket. Recent patterns suggest uploads occur sporadically rather than on fixed schedules, making timing prediction difficult. The specific view threshold brackets remain the critical variable—whether the market resolves YES depends entirely on where those brackets are set relative to his typical performance range.

Methodology

We track # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.