Haiti vs. Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 13 June, with the market currently pricing Haiti as favourite at 62 per cent implied probability. No material developments have shifted positioning in the past 48 hours; the market remains anchored to squad composition and recent competitive form ahead of the tournament draw confirmation.

Scotland's recent record provides the primary historical lens. They qualified for Euro 2024 but exited the group stage without a win, conceding nine goals across three matches. Haiti, conversely, secured their first World Cup qualification since 1974 by winning the CONCACAF playoff path—a notably weaker confederation than UEFA—and have not competed at this level in over five decades. Direct comparison is complicated by the 52-year gap in Haiti's tournament experience, though their qualifying campaign showed defensive vulnerabilities (they conceded 15 goals in eight matches). Scotland's squad depth and European league exposure typically favour them in knockout-adjacent scenarios, yet the market's 62 per cent Haiti lean suggests traders are weighting the psychological advantage of recent qualification momentum and potential group-stage unpredictability.

Traders should monitor squad announcements from both nations through to late May, particularly injury updates affecting Scotland's midfield depth—they have limited creative options beyond established starters. Fixture scheduling within the group stage will also matter; if Haiti play their final group match knowing they need a result, late-tournament fatigue patterns could shift dynamics. The settlement window closes immediately after the match concludes on 14 June.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.