Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul has started the day with a forecast profile that looks warm rather than exceptional: AccuWeather’s June outlook shows daily highs mostly in the low 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, while broader June guides for South Korea place Seoul’s daytime range around 19–28°C, with humidity and showers becoming more likely towards the end of the month.[1][2] That keeps the market’s current 0% pricing understandable if traders are assuming a flat, non-eventful temperature profile rather than a standout spike.

For this market, the key comparison is that late-June warmth in Seoul is usually still early-summer heat, not peak midsummer extremes.[2][6] Historical climate summaries put Seoul’s average June high around 26–27°C, with the warmest days typically reaching the upper 20s Celsius, so any result in the top bands would generally need a hotter-than-normal afternoon rather than a routine June day.[1][9] Because the settlement is based on the highest reading at Incheon Intl Airport Station, the day’s single warmest hour matters more than the all-day average.

The main catalysts are local weather updates, cloud cover, and whether humidity builds fast enough to push the afternoon peak higher; the Korea Meteorological Administration notes that its daytime high is the highest temperature recorded from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., which is the period most likely to drive the settlement value.[8] Traders should watch short-range forecasts and any shift towards clearer skies or stronger sunshine, since those are the conditions most likely to lift the maximum temperature above the ordinary June range.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.