Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 15 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, where the highest temperature recorded across the entire day determines the settlement outcome. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or uncertain about the resolution mechanics, given that any day in Seoul will produce some measurable temperature reading.

Mid-June in Seoul typically falls within the early monsoon season, with daily highs averaging 26–28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. Historical data from previous June 15ths shows considerable year-to-year variation; the city experienced 29.4°C in 2023 and 27.1°C in 2022. These precedents matter because they establish the baseline range against which the market's temperature brackets should be calibrated. Incheon's coastal location moderates extremes compared to central Seoul, generally keeping readings 1–2°C cooler than the city centre.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts from late May onwards, particularly any alerts regarding early-season heat waves or unusual pressure systems affecting the Korean peninsula. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues seasonal outlooks by early June that could shift expectations. Since this market settles on a specific date nearly two years away, the current absence of trading activity reflects the impracticality of meaningful prediction at such distance; meaningful price discovery typically emerges within 7–14 days of the settlement date when meteorological models gain reliability.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.