Sweden vs. Tunisia

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden and Tunisia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June. The 52% implied probability for a Swedish victory reflects modest confidence in the Nordic side, despite their higher FIFA ranking and recent competitive record. No significant team news has shifted the odds materially in the past 48 hours; the market appears to have settled on a cautious assessment of Sweden's edge rather than a strong conviction.

Historical context suggests this probability sits in a reasonable band. Sweden reached the 2018 World Cup quarter-finals and qualified for Euro 2024, whilst Tunisia has struggled at recent tournaments, failing to advance from group stages in 2018 and 2022. Head-to-head records favour Sweden decisively. However, group-stage football carries inherent volatility—Tunisia's defensive solidity and occasional counter-attacking threat mean a draw or upset remains plausible, which the market's modest 52% figure acknowledges.

Traders should monitor squad announcements through early June, particularly any late injuries to Sweden's key midfielders or Tunisia's defensive core. Fixture scheduling within the group will also matter; Sweden's position in the match order and their opponents in other games could affect tactical approach and motivation. Weather conditions in North America on the day—heat and humidity in some venues can favour teams with deeper benches—merit tracking as the settlement window approaches.

Methodology

We track Sweden vs. Tunisia on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.