Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 11 June 2026 will be shaped by early monsoon patterns typical of late spring in South Korea. The settlement window closes at midday local time, meaning the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station through noon will determine the outcome. Current crowd pricing at 0% suggests traders are heavily discounting the likelihood of extreme heat on this specific date, though the reasoning behind such certainty warrants scrutiny given the market's narrow temporal window.

Historical temperature data for Seoul in mid-June shows considerable variability. Over the past two decades, maximum temperatures on 11 June have ranged from approximately 22°C to 31°C, with an average around 26–27°C. The 0% probability assigned here implies traders expect conditions well below historical norms for this calendar date, or that the specific settlement mechanics—measuring only through noon rather than the full day's high—significantly constrains the outcome range. June typically marks the transition into the rainy season, which can suppress daytime highs through cloud cover and moisture.

The key variable traders should monitor is the East Asian weather pattern in late May and early June 2026, particularly whether a high-pressure system establishes itself over the Korean peninsula or whether monsoon moisture arrives earlier than climatologically typical. Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts, released in late May, will provide the most actionable signal. Any unusual heat dome or early-season anticyclone positioning could shift expectations materially from current pricing, though the noon-only settlement window remains a structural constraint on how high temperatures can register.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

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