Highest temperature in London on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

London is bracing for its hottest June day on record, with forecasts pushing temperatures above 35°C across the Midlands and southern England, potentially reaching 36–37°C near Greater London[6]. Yesterday’s peak at Kew Gardens hit 26.6°C, the highest so far in 2026, but today’s heatwave is far more intense, with red alerts issued for Wednesday and Thursday due to expected health and infrastructure impacts[5][6]. The crowd-implied 76% YES probability for the 35°C or below range now faces serious doubt as temperatures are forecast to surpass that threshold, with some areas possibly nearing 40°C[6].

Historically, June 24 in London has rarely exceeded 30°C; the average high for June is 84°F (29°C), and the highest recorded average temperature in June occurs on 29 June at 21.3°C[3][4]. The 1976 record of 35.6°C remains the benchmark for June extremes, yet today’s forecast comfortably eclipses it, suggesting a shift from typical patterns to an anomalous heat spike[6]. Traders should monitor the Met Office’s red alert updates and the UK Health Security Agency’s guidance, as these directly correlate with temperature thresholds and public response[6]. Additionally, watch for real-time data from London City Airport (EGLC) via National Weather Service and Wunderground, which will confirm the official settlement value once the day concludes[7][8].

Recent news from Sky News and BBC confirms the severity of this event, with Heathrow already recording 37.8°C, indicating that London City Airport will likely follow a similar trajectory[5][10]. The key catalysts are the timing of peak heat (expected midday to early afternoon) and the persistence of overnight humidity, which may prevent temperatures from dropping below 17–22°C, sustaining heat stress into the night[6]. Traders must weigh these dependencies against the current 76% probability, which appears increasingly misaligned with the forecasted reality.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.