Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 8 June 2026 will be shaped by early monsoon conditions typical of the pre-summer transition period. The Hong Kong Observatory will record the daily maximum temperature, which historically in early June ranges between 28–32°C depending on whether the southwest monsoon has fully established itself. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending more concrete meteorological data.

Historical June records show considerable variability. Between 2015 and 2024, Hong Kong's daily maximum temperatures in early June ranged from 26.8°C to 33.9°C, with an average around 30°C. Years with established monsoon flow tend toward the lower end of this range, whilst delayed onset can push temperatures higher. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 8 June, meaning the Observatory's final daily extract—typically published within 24–48 hours of the observation period—will determine resolution. Traders should monitor the Observatory's daily weather bulletins and monthly outlooks released in May, which typically forecast monsoon timing and intensity for June.

The key catalyst remains the actual monsoon onset date. The Observatory publishes detailed seasonal outlooks in late May that often revise temperature expectations. Additionally, any significant weather systems or tropical cyclone activity in the preceding weeks could influence atmospheric patterns. Current market inactivity reflects the standard lag in pricing distant weather events; meaningful trading typically accelerates within two weeks of the settlement date once deterministic forecasts become available.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.