Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou has already started the day in classic July heat and humidity, with the airport station observing 30°C, light easterly winds and very high humidity before mid-morning local time. Recent forecasts still point to a hot, storm-prone afternoon, with daytime highs around 34–37°C and a meaningful chance of thunderstorms or showers, so the main near-term question is whether cloud and rain arrive early enough to cap the top temperature, or late enough to leave the day close to the upper end of the forecast range.[4][3][5]

That context helps explain why the market is sitting at 0% YES: the settlement threshold is not a broad “hot day” reading, but the single highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on the calendar day, and July 31 is typically one of Guangzhou’s hottest days of the year. Long-run climate guides put July highs around 32–33°C on average, with occasional peaks into the mid-30s, while forecasts for this specific day have clustered in that same range, making the outcome far more sensitive to the timing of convection than to the headline daily forecast alone.[12][18][13]

Traders should watch the evolution of the afternoon thunderstorm risk and any updated airport observations, because a break in cloud cover before storms develop would leave room for a late-day high, while early rainfall would compress the ceiling. The latest model guidance already flags thunderstorms, a high precipitation probability and elevated humidity, which are the main catalysts that can keep the top reading below the hotter end of the forecast band.[3][6][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.