Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing has already moved through a hot, humid July pattern, and the immediate question is whether the airport station can still deliver a late-day spike before the settlement window closes. Long-run July averages in Beijing sit around 31–32°C for highs, while 31 July typically runs close to 31°C, with historical extremes on that date reaching 37°C at some Beijing climate stations.[1][2]

That leaves the current 0% YES pricing anchored to a very high bar: the market resolves from the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 31 July, not from an afternoon forecast peak. Comparable Beijing climate data show that July is usually the warmest month, but airport readings can be tempered by cloud, rain and the timing of convective showers, all of which make the day’s maximum less predictable than the monthly average alone suggests.[1][2][3]

Traders should watch for the final synoptic setup over northern China, especially whether a ridge builds over Beijing or whether scattered thunderstorms and rain bands suppress the afternoon high. Beijing’s late-July daylight still extends to around 19:30 local time, so the maximum can arrive well after the market has opened, and airport observations on Wunderground will matter more than citywide headlines or general regional forecasts.[2][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.