Highest temperature in Seoul on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s July 4 high temperature is currently priced at a 0% implied probability for hitting 29°C, a sharp repricing from the 30.5% probability seen just 24 hours ago. This collapse follows the Korea Meteorological Administration’s latest short-range forecast, which now predicts showers and a maximum of 23°C for the day, directly contradicting earlier heatwave expectations. The market, which resolves at noon KST based on official readings from Incheon Intl Airport Station, has seen $5,620 in total volume, all concentrated in the last 24 hours, making the price highly sensitive to any updated KMA data before settlement.

Historically, Seoul’s July highs range between 27.7°C and 30°C, with the average high sitting at 25.4°C (75.6°F), yet extreme heatwaves have pushed temperatures above 40°C in recent years, such as the record-breaking 41.2°C in July 2025. The current 0% probability for 29°C aligns with the monsoon season’s typical cooling effect, where heavy rainfall and high humidity often suppress daytime highs despite the season’s overall heat. Traders should note that while 29°C was once the single most likely outcome, the shift to a wetter forecast has rendered it a minority call, with NO now the market-f favoured side at $0.70.

The key catalyst to watch is the KMA’s 24-to-48-hour forecast update, which will reprice every temperature bracket in this market. Recent news from Anadolu Ajansı confirms South Korea’s vulnerability to record-breaking July temperatures, but the immediate outlook for Seoul now hinges on the monsoon’s intensity. Traders must monitor the KMA’s hourly short-range forecast, which currently shows a 60% probability of slight rainfall and a feel-like temperature of 26°C, as any deviation could trigger a sharp market move before the noon resolution.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.