Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

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Market context

New York City's weather on 7 June 2026 will be measured against historical June patterns for the region, with LaGuardia Airport serving as the official observation point. Early June typically sees temperatures in the mid-70s to low-80s Fahrenheit at this location, though heat waves can push readings into the 90s. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in cooler conditions or uncertainty about which specific temperature band will occur.

Historical data from LaGuardia shows considerable variability in early June temperatures. The airport has recorded June highs ranging from the upper 60s during cooler years to the mid-90s during warmer periods. A notable heat wave in June 2021 produced temperatures exceeding 90°F across the region, demonstrating that elevated readings are plausible for this time of year. Seasonal patterns indicate that early June typically sits between typical spring conditions and the more reliably warm mid-summer period.

Traders monitoring this market should track National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 7 June, as these will provide the most actionable guidance on whether high-pressure systems or Atlantic moisture patterns dominate. Longer-range climate outlooks from NOAA, typically updated monthly, may signal whether June 2026 is expected to trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. Real-time atmospheric conditions in late May will be the primary driver of near-term probability shifts, particularly the position of jet stream patterns affecting the northeastern United States.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.