Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Market context

The 48-hour shift from a dangerous heatwave to a sharp cool-down has reset expectations for LaGuardia Airport on 22 June. While Central Park hit 102°F on 21 June, breaking the all-time June record, the Northeast Corridor has since plunged into a rapid temperature collapse driven by a strong northerly flow and cloud cover[5]. This abrupt reversal explains the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome above 86°F, as the market now anchors on the immediate reality of a cold front rather than the preceding heat spike[1].

Historical June patterns in New York show that extreme highs near 100°F are rare outliers, with the average high sitting at 83°F and the typical range clustering between 75°F and 88°F[6][7]. The current frontrunner of 72–73°F, holding 97% of the market volume, aligns with these cooler baselines and the specific 71°F reading already recorded at LaGuardia for the day[1][10]. This probability distribution suggests traders view the preceding heatwave as a transient anomaly rather than a trend, framing the current odds as a rational correction to seasonal norms.

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service’s excessive heat warning expiration and the timing of the next high-pressure system arrival, as these dictate whether temperatures rebound or stay suppressed[5]. The settlement source relies exclusively on Wunderground’s daily high for LaGuardia, making the 12:00 UTC cutoff critical for capturing the final peak[10]. With the heatwave forecast to last only until the weekend, the immediate dependency is the persistence of the northerly flow, which currently keeps conditions well below the dangerous thresholds seen two days prior[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

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