Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?

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Market context

Hong Kong's June weather patterns show considerable variability in daily maximum temperatures, with the month typically marking the transition into the southwest monsoon season. Historical data from the Hong Kong Observatory indicates June daily maxima generally range between 28°C and 33°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed higher during particularly intense heat episodes or when tropical systems approach the region. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are currently uncertain about which temperature bracket will materialise on 16 June 2026, reflecting the inherent difficulty in forecasting specific daily maxima months in advance.

Comparable June days over the past decade reveal that temperatures exceeding 32°C occur in roughly 40–50% of cases, whilst readings above 34°C remain relatively uncommon but not unprecedented. The Hong Kong Observatory's daily maximum measurements, recorded at their King's Park station, serve as the definitive settlement source and are typically finalised within 24 hours of the observation date. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from late May onwards, as the positioning of the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system and any early-season tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific can substantially influence whether 16 June experiences typical mid-range temperatures or anomalously warm conditions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.