US and Iran sign an agreement by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain stalled despite the 83 per cent crowd probability suggesting an agreement by July 2026. The incoming Trump administration's stance on Iran policy has created uncertainty; Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018, though some analysts note his transactional approach could theoretically produce bilateral deals outside the multilateral framework. Recent statements from Iranian officials have been cautious, with Supreme Leader Khamenei maintaining hardline positions on nuclear sovereignty, whilst US officials have offered no concrete negotiating timeline for the next eighteen months.

Historical precedent offers mixed signals for assessing this probability. The JCPOA itself took over a decade of diplomatic groundwork before the 2015 signing, suggesting major agreements require sustained political will from both sides. Conversely, smaller bilateral accords—such as prisoner exchanges or technical arrangements—have materialised relatively quickly when both parties identified mutual benefit. The current market probability of 83 per cent implies traders expect either a breakthrough on sanctions relief, nuclear restrictions, or regional security matters, yet no formal talks have been announced.

Key catalysts to monitor include statements from Iran's new government following its 2024 elections, any US diplomatic overtures in 2025, and developments in regional conflicts affecting both parties' strategic calculations. Markets should track announcements from the State Department and Iranian foreign ministry closely, as even preliminary talks would likely shift probabilities materially. The settlement window's eighteen-month horizon provides sufficient time for diplomatic shifts, but current radio silence suggests the crowd may be pricing in optimism not yet reflected in official positions.

Methodology

We track US and Iran sign an agreement by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.