Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is running hot this morning, with live forecasts and observations pointing to a daytime high in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius rather than anything near the freezing tail implied by a 0% yes price.[11][15] That matters because this market resolves to the *highest* temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on the day, so the key question is whether the airport breaks into the upper 30s or stays capped in the mid-30s.[11][13]

The historical frame is straightforward: July in Chengdu is normally warm, humid and rain-prone, with average highs around 31–33°C and some days pushing into the upper 30s.[6][12][14][20] Several forecast sources for today are clustered around a peak near 33–37°C, which is consistent with a strong summer afternoon but not necessarily an extreme heat spike.[2][3][13] In that context, the current crowd price looks detached from the likely outcome unless a late-day storm or cloud cover materially suppresses the airport maximum.[2][14]

For traders, the main catalysts are the afternoon temperature profile, any convective rain, and whether humidity pushes the “feels like” readings without actually lifting the official maximum.[2][11][15] The airport station is the resolution source, so citywide conditions matter less than what happens at Chengdu Shuangliu specifically; small differences in timing of sun, cloud and showers can move the day’s peak by a degree or two.[11] Latest hour-by-hour guidance from Ventusky and AccuWeather shows heating through the late morning into early afternoon, with only a modest rain signal later in the day.[13][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.