Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Vladimir Putin was still performing the presidency as recently as the St Petersburg International Economic Forum on 4 June, where he brushed aside questions about staying in power until 2036 and said it was too early to discuss succession or another term. That matters for this market because the current baseline is continuity, not transition: there has been no public resignation, removal, or formal move that would imply an imminent vacancy before the June deadline.[1]

The main historical frame is that Putin has repeatedly extended his rule through constitutional and institutional changes rather than abrupt exits. Russia’s 2020 amendments reset the term-limit clock, while the constitution still allows him to seek re-election in 2030, which could keep him in office until 2036 if he wins again.[3][5] At the same time, the probability of a sudden departure by 30 June remains structurally low because Russian succession has generally been managed within the elite rather than through public, fast-moving announcements.[3][5]

For traders, the immediate catalysts are official Kremlin statements, any extraordinary health-related announcement, and any sudden constitutional, legal or security event that could force a change in office. The recent Reuters report suggests no near-term signalling from Putin himself, and his June appearances, including a bilateral meeting in Kazan on 17 June, point to normal functioning rather than a handover window.[1][7] In practical terms, the market is now most sensitive to surprise news rather than scheduled diplomacy or routine public events.[1][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.