Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 4 June 2026 will be recorded at the international airport station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's peak reading in Celsius. Current market pricing reflects zero probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either minimal trader engagement or genuine uncertainty about which range will ultimately contain the day's high.

June in Wellington sits firmly within the Southern Hemisphere winter, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 10–14°C. The 0% probability distribution across all brackets is unusual for a weather market and likely reflects low liquidity rather than consensus forecasting. Comparable winter days at Wellington Airport show considerable variability; whilst mild days occasionally reach 16–17°C, cold snaps can suppress highs to single digits. The airport's coastal location and exposure to Southern Ocean systems create volatile conditions that resist confident prediction weeks in advance.

Traders should monitor the Wunderground historical database directly in the days preceding 4 June, as this serves as the sole resolution source. Broader Southern Hemisphere weather patterns—particularly any significant low-pressure systems tracking towards New Zealand in late May—will shape atmospheric conditions. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on recorded data from Wellington International Airport Station; readings from other Wellington locations will not apply. Given the market's current state, early positioning may offer value once weather models converge on a probable range in the week before the event.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.