Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva

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Market context

Kostyuk and Andreeva are scheduled to meet in the Roland Garros women's draw on 4 June 2026, with the market currently pricing Kostyuk's advancement at 55 per cent. No material developments have shifted positioning in the past 48 hours, though both players' form trajectories into the French Open will remain fluid through the spring clay season.

Kostyuk holds a modest head-to-head advantage over Andreeva in their limited prior encounters, though Andreeva's rapid ascent through the rankings has narrowed the gap considerably. The Ukrainian has historically performed well on clay, whilst Andreeva—despite her youth—has shown increasing comfort on the surface. Historical matchups between players of similar ranking at Roland Garros suggest the market's 55–45 split reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a decisive edge. Comparable first-round or early-round clashes between rising players typically settle near 50–50 when both carry comparable seeding or ranking positions.

Traders should monitor both players' results and injury status through May, particularly any clay-court tournament performances that might signal form heading into Paris. Withdrawal announcements, coaching changes, or unexpected losses on the European clay swing could shift the probability meaningfully. The settlement window closes on 11 June at 13:00 UTC, allowing roughly a week beyond the scheduled match date for completion; any delay beyond that triggers a 50–50 resolution. Surface conditions and draw positioning—determined closer to the tournament—may also influence perceived advantage once the bracket is finalised.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.