Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s heatwave has stalled overnight, with Haneda Airport recording just 22°C at 6:30 am on 4 July 2026, far below the daily normal maximum of 28.7°C[8]. The market’s current 0% YES probability for hitting 26°C reflects this sudden cooling, a sharp reversal from the 35% implied chance seen just 24 hours ago when forecasts suggested highs near 32°C[3]. This drop aligns with a broader regional shift: a low-pressure system moving in from the Pacific has suppressed temperatures across the Kanto region, delaying the typical mid-July surge.

Historically, July 4 in Tokyo rarely breaches 26°C unless accompanied by a strong subtropical ridge. The last three years saw highs of 24°C, 25°C, and 23°C, with the 2025 national record of 41.2°C occurring in Hyogo, not Tokyo[2]. Even during Japan’s hottest July average (28.7°C), Haneda’s coastal location buffers extremes, keeping daily highs typically between 26°C and 30°C[7]. The current 0% probability is thus grounded in precedent, not speculation.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s 3-day forecast updates issued at 17:00 JST, which will clarify if the low-pressure system weakens or persists[8]. A key catalyst is the scheduled release of the monthly climate report on 7 July, which may confirm whether this cooling trend is anomalous or part of a longer pattern. Until then, the market’s stance remains firmly anchored in real-time data, not historical averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.