Highest temperature in Taipei on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei has just come through another very hot spell, with temperatures topping 36°C for a third straight day and the Central Weather Administration issuing an orange heat advisory for the city on Friday. That leaves the market’s 0% yes price looking detached from the live weather pattern, because the resolution hinges on the day’s *highest* reading at Taipei Songshan Airport Station rather than an average or midnight value.[1]

For context, July is already Taipei’s hottest month on typical climate measures, with average highs around 33–34°C and a normal range that often reaches the low-to-mid 30s. Historical extremes also show that the city can overshoot those averages sharply: Taipei has recorded temperatures near 40°C, and July maxima well above 36°C are not exceptional in an established summer heatwave.[4][7][11]

The key catalysts are the same-day forecast updates, the strength and timing of afternoon heating, and whether clouds, rain bands or a sea breeze cap the peak before the settlement window closes at noon UTC. Traders should also watch for any further CWA advisories and late-morning temperature readings from the Songshan Airport station, since the market resolves off the highest temperature recorded on Wunderground for that station on 31 July.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.