Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 11?

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Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 11 June 2026 will be shaped by the onset of the South China early monsoon season, when the Pearl River Delta typically experiences sustained heat and humidity ahead of the main summer rains. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available or treating this as a calibration exercise given the settlement window extends to midday local time, capturing only morning and early afternoon readings rather than the full diurnal cycle.

Historical data from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport shows June temperatures consistently range between 28–35°C, with daily highs clustering around 31–33°C during the first half of the month. Comparable years reveal little volatility in early June; extreme heat events (above 36°C) are rare before mid-month and typically require anomalous high-pressure systems or tropical disturbances. The airport's coastal location moderates peak temperatures relative to inland districts, making readings above 34°C uncommon for this date.

Traders should monitor the positioning of the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early June 2026, both of which could drive temperatures upward. The China Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecasts, updated regularly through early June, will provide the most actionable signal. Given the settlement deadline captures only partial daily heating, the market effectively prices the likelihood of sustained morning warmth rather than afternoon peaks, a distinction that narrows the plausible range considerably.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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