Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28?

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Market context

Shanghai's weather on 28 May 2026 will be shaped by the transition into early summer monsoon season, when the city typically experiences warming trends and increased humidity. Late May temperatures at Pudong International Airport have historically ranged between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves driven by subtropical high-pressure systems moving northward from the South China Sea. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending meteorological data closer to the resolution date.

Comparable conditions from recent years provide context: May 2023 saw Shanghai peak at 31.5°C mid-month, whilst May 2024 recorded highs of 30–32°C across the final week. The difference between a typical late-May day (29–31°C) and an outlier event (33°C+) often hinges on whether a high-pressure ridge establishes itself over eastern China or whether convective systems bring cloud cover and cooler air masses. Traders monitoring China Meteorological Administration forecasts and Wunderground's historical station data will have the most reliable reference points.

The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 28 May, meaning the market resolves based on the maximum temperature recorded at Pudong station throughout that calendar day. Any significant weather system—tropical cyclone remnants, cold fronts, or sustained anticyclonic conditions—would shift outcomes materially. Watch for official Chinese weather warnings issued in the week prior, which typically flag anomalous heat or severe weather patterns affecting the Yangtze River Delta region.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.