Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran remains formally intact as of late 2024, with no confirmed kinetic military operations reported by either side in recent weeks. The arrangement, which emerged from diplomatic channels following escalatory exchanges earlier in the year, has held despite periodic tensions and rhetorical posturing from both governments. No official US government statement has announced military strikes on Iranian territory, and major news organisations have not reported credible evidence of such actions occurring.

Historical precedent suggests that US-Iran military engagements often follow a pattern of warning, escalation, and then either restraint or rapid kinetic response. The January 2020 strikes on Soleimani and subsequent Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Iraq demonstrated how quickly situations can shift from diplomatic channels to military action. However, the current ceasefire has proven more durable than previous informal understandings, partly because both sides face competing priorities—the US managing Middle Eastern commitments elsewhere, and Iran navigating internal economic pressures and regional instability.

Traders should monitor statements from the US State Department and Pentagon regarding Iranian activities, particularly any announcements about nuclear programme developments or alleged support for proxy forces in Iraq and Syria. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News has tracked Iranian military movements near the Strait of Hormuz and US naval positioning in the region. The market's 100% probability reflects the absence of any imminent trigger for renewed hostilities, though this consensus could shift rapidly if either government confirms military action or if credible reporting documents strikes before the resolution deadline.

Methodology

We track Iran ceasefire continues through? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.