Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

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Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 28 May 2026 will be determined by late spring weather patterns across the Korean peninsula, with settlement based on readings from Incheon International Airport's official meteorological station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as predetermined, though May temperatures in Seoul typically range between 22–28°C depending on atmospheric conditions and any early monsoon influence.

Historical May data from Incheon shows considerable variability year to year. The station has recorded May highs spanning from around 20°C during cooler, wetter years to 30°C or above during warmer, drier springs. The late-May period sits at the threshold between spring and early summer conditions, making it sensitive to both residual cool air masses from the north and warming subtropical systems pushing northward. Comparable years with similar large-scale pressure patterns provide the most reliable benchmarks for assessing plausible temperature ranges.

Traders should monitor weather model consensus from late May 2026, particularly the position of high-pressure systems over East Asia and any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific that might redirect moisture patterns. The Korea Meteorological Administration's official forecasts, typically issued 7–10 days in advance, will sharpen expectations closer to the settlement date. Incheon Airport's station records are publicly accessible through Wunderground's historical archive, ensuring transparent resolution against verifiable observational data rather than estimates or interpolated values.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.