Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's early June weather typically transitions into the pre-monsoon season, with daytime highs ranging from 24–28°C at Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the settlement window's noon cutoff will capture a temperature below the lowest available range bracket, though this reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature bands the market offers rather than meteorological implausibility for that date.

Historical June 7th data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. In recent decades, recorded highs have ranged from approximately 20°C during cooler, cloudier years to 31°C during warmer spells. The station's elevation and coastal proximity moderate extremes compared to central Seoul, typically producing readings 1–3°C cooler than the city centre. Comparable early-June periods demonstrate that afternoon peaks are the norm, making the noon resolution window relevant to actual daily maxima rather than early-morning lows.

The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical archive for Incheon (RKSI), which pulls from official Korean Meteorological Administration data. Traders should verify the exact temperature brackets available in this market before positioning, as the 0% reading may simply indicate that the lowest bracket sits above realistic expectations rather than suggesting an unusually cold day is priced in. Regional weather patterns in late May 2026 will be the primary driver; any significant high-pressure system or tropical moisture influx could shift outcomes materially.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.