Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Market context

Seoul’s weather on 24 June 2026 is currently mild, with a recorded high of 30°C (86°F) at Incheon International Airport, well below the extreme thresholds that would trigger a “YES” outcome in this prediction market. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the reality that June in Seoul typically sees daytime highs between 19°C and 28°C, with only rare spikes above 30°C, and no historical precedent for temperatures exceeding 35°C on this date.

Historically, the warmest day in Seoul during June occurs around 28 June, peaking at 26.7°C (80°F), while early June remains closer to spring-like conditions. Even in recent years, June 24 has never recorded a high above 31°C, and the monsoon season—bringing heavy rain and cooler air—usually begins in late June, further suppressing extreme heat. This pattern strongly supports the current market consensus that a record-breaking high is implausible.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover, as well as Wunderground’s hourly updates for Incheon Airport, which serve as the official resolution source. A recent Facebook post from JustKTravel notes that late June often brings humid afternoons and possible rain due to the onset of monsoon activity, which would further reduce the likelihood of extreme temperatures. No major weather announcements are scheduled for 24 June, but real-time data from Wunderground will be critical as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.