Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

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Market context

New York City's weather on 30 May 2026 will be measured against historical May temperatures at LaGuardia Airport, where late spring typically brings warm but variable conditions. The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading recorded across all times that day at the airport station, with resolution sourced through Wunderground's historical data. Current market pricing at 0% suggests traders are either awaiting range options or reflecting genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will contain the day's peak.

Historical May temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variation. The airport has recorded May highs ranging from the mid-60s Fahrenheit during cooler years to the low 90s during warm spells, with a median around 75–80°F. Late May specifically tends toward the warmer end of spring, as the Northeast transitions toward summer patterns. This wide historical spread explains why markets on specific daily temperatures typically distribute probability across multiple ranges rather than concentrating on a single outcome—the 0% reading suggests the market interface may not yet display all available temperature brackets.

Traders should monitor the extended forecast as May 2026 approaches, particularly tracking whether Atlantic high-pressure systems or frontal systems dominate the Northeast during that period. The National Weather Service's 8–14 day outlooks, issued weekly, will provide the most actionable guidance on whether late May leans toward seasonably warm or anomalously cool conditions. Any significant heat waves or cold snaps affecting the broader region in early May could shift probabilities materially, as such patterns often persist into the final week of the month.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.