Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid is already in its hottest stretch of the year, and the immediate question is whether the airport station gets a strong enough afternoon surge before the settlement window closes. That matters because the market resolves on the *highest* reading at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport on 31 July, so the noon UTC cutoff leaves only part of the day’s warm-up in play rather than the full afternoon peak.

The climate baseline is firmly warm: AEMET’s Madrid climate extremes show July as the month with the highest average maximum temperature, at 36.8°C in July 2022, with an absolute July maximum of 40.7°C recorded on 14 July 2022.[2] Wider Madrid history also shows repeated July highs in the mid-to-upper 30s, with July averages around 34°C in several historical datasets.[6][14] Against that backdrop, a 0% yes price looks disconnected from normal summer conditions unless the contract’s temperature bands are set unusually high.

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s solar heating, cloud cover, wind, and any late-morning or early-afternoon convection that could cap the maximum before the market’s 12:00 UTC settlement window ends. The airport observation itself is the deciding source, so updates to local forecasts and any weather warnings for Madrid are the key inputs; recent agency or media coverage has not flagged an exceptional cool spell, which leaves the usual July heat profile in place as the operative reference point.[8][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.