Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

Hong Kong's temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded by the Observatory's official monitoring network, with settlement dependent on the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract once the date passes. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state ahead of the settlement window closing at midday on that date; no meaningful trading activity has yet established a baseline expectation across the available temperature bands.

June temperatures in Hong Kong typically range between 28–32°C as the territory transitions into the early monsoon season, though daily maxima can exceed 33°C during heat waves. Historical data from the Observatory shows that extreme June heat—temperatures above 35°C—occurs roughly once every five to ten years, whilst readings below 27°C are uncommon but possible during cooler, wetter spells. The specific date's outcome will depend heavily on whether a monsoon trough or tropical system influences the region during the first half of June.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's extended forecasts from early June onwards, particularly any alerts regarding heat warnings or significant weather systems. The Observatory publishes nine-day outlooks that typically become more reliable five to seven days before the target date. Any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during early June could substantially lower the expected maximum, whilst a high-pressure system would push temperatures toward the upper range. Settlement cannot occur until the Observatory finalises and publishes the Daily Extract data for 11 June, which typically becomes available within days of the observation date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.