Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9?

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Market context

Chengdu has opened the day warmer than late-summer averages, with the airport station at 79°F/26°C by 9:00 AM UTC and a morning high already matching the lower end of the forecast range. The market is still anchored to the **Daily Observations** table at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, not the summary “Day High & Low” panel, so the live path of the reading matters more than any headline display.[3][11]

For context, August is Chengdu’s hottest month on average, with typical highs around 30–31°C and occasional spikes into the mid-30s°C; historical August records show the city can reach roughly 39°C in exceptional heat events.[1][8][15] That framing helps explain why a **0% YES** price is unusual: it implies the crowd sees the currently most likely bucket as already out of reach, even though early-day temperatures can still move materially if afternoon heating develops as expected in the city’s humid summer climate.[12][15]

The key catalysts are the rest of today’s temperature observations at the airport station, especially any jump before the local afternoon peak, plus whether cloud cover, rain, or a cool sea-breeze-like change limits the climb. Weather Underground’s history page is the resolution source and was last updated at 9:00 AM UTC in the live feed, so traders will be watching successive table entries rather than general city forecasts for the final resolved high.[3][11][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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