Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with recent data showing transit calls well below the 60-vessel weekly average needed to signal normalisation. The latest published figures from IMF Portwatch continue to reflect the combined effects of Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, regional tensions, and the consequent rerouting of traffic around the Cape of Good Hope—a detour adding roughly two weeks to transit times and substantially raising shipping costs. No material change in attack frequency or regional security posture has emerged in the past 48 hours to suggest an imminent reversal.

Historical precedent offers limited comfort for the 1% probability currently priced in. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine disruption to Black Sea grain exports took eight months to resolve through corridor agreements; the 2019 tanker attacks in the Gulf saw traffic recover only after months of heightened naval presence and insurance adjustments. The Houthi campaign, now spanning over a year with no negotiated settlement framework in place, suggests structural rather than temporary displacement of shipping patterns.

Traders monitoring this market should track announcements regarding US-led naval escort operations, any ceasefire negotiations involving Yemen's Houthis, and quarterly earnings calls from major shipping lines revealing whether they intend to resume Hormuz routing. The International Maritime Organization's latest guidance on regional risk assessments and insurance premium movements will signal confidence shifts. Without a documented security breakthrough or formal de-escalation agreement, the threshold of 60 daily transits appears unlikely to materialise before the May 2026 settlement date.

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.