Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Thiago Seyboth Wild faces Nick Hardt in the Asuncion 2 tournament on 17 June 2026, with the market currently reflecting zero confidence in a Seyboth Wild victory. The 0% probability suggests either strong conviction about Hardt's superiority or minimal trading activity establishing a floor price. Settlement occurs 7 days after the scheduled match, allowing for delays or postponements without triggering a 50-50 resolution.

Seyboth Wild, a Brazilian player ranked in the lower ATP tiers, has competed primarily on South American clay circuits where home advantage typically matters. Hardt, an American journeyman, holds comparable ranking status but lacks recent tournament momentum. Historical precedent from similar lower-tier ATP matches shows that home-soil advantage in South American tournaments shifts win probabilities by 15–25 percentage points; a 0% market price for the home player is unusually extreme and suggests either incomplete market participation or recent information disadvantaging Seyboth Wild specifically.

Traders should monitor official ATP injury reports and late withdrawals through mid-June, as Asuncion tournaments frequently see last-minute roster changes. Court conditions at the Asuncion venue—typically fast clay—favour aggressive baseline play, which historically suits Hardt's game more than Seyboth Wild's. Any announcement of surface changes or scheduling shifts before 17 June could shift the probability meaningfully. The settlement window's 7-day buffer means matches delayed beyond 24 June without completion would resolve 50-50, creating tail-risk exposure for either side.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.