Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Roland Garros ATP match between Adam Walton and Daniil Medvedev is scheduled for 24 May 2026, with the market currently pricing Medvedev's advancement at 84 per cent. No material shifts in player status or injury reports have emerged in the past 48 hours that would alter the baseline assessment of this first-round encounter.

Medvedev's clay-court record provides the primary frame for interpreting this probability. Whilst the Russian has never won Roland Garros, he has reached the final twice (2021, 2023) and consistently advances through early rounds on the surface. His ranking and seeding typically position him favourably against unranked or lower-ranked opponents. Walton, conversely, remains outside the top 100 and has limited ATP main-draw experience at Grand Slams. Historical patterns suggest a 15–20 percentage-point probability swing occurs when seeded players face qualifiers or fringe tour members at Roland Garros, yet the 84 per cent reading here sits within that expected range rather than suggesting an outlier.

Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any late withdrawals or schedule adjustments in the week preceding 24 May. Weather disruptions at Roland Garros occasionally compress the schedule, though the settlement window extends to 31 May, providing a seven-day buffer. Medvedev's fitness status heading into the tournament—particularly any lingering issues from the preceding ATP 1000 events—remains the primary catalyst that could shift pricing materially. Court assignments and surface conditions on the day will also influence match dynamics, though these typically have marginal impact on such a heavily favoured matchup.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.