HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The HSBC Championships match between Mannarino and Fery, scheduled for 17 June 2026 at 04:00 ET, has not yet materialised on the professional tennis calendar as a confirmed fixture. The 0% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether this encounter will occur at all, rather than a settled assessment of either player's relative strength. The settlement window extends to 24 June, allowing a seven-day grace period for rescheduling before the market defaults to 50-50 resolution.

Historical precedent suggests that ATP 250-level matches involving lower-ranked players frequently face cancellation or withdrawal complications. Mannarino, a veteran French left-hander, has maintained tour status through clay-court consistency but remains vulnerable to scheduling conflicts and injury-related withdrawals. Fery, an Austrian player, has experienced irregular tour presence in recent seasons. When comparable fixtures between players of this ranking tier fail to materialise, markets typically resolve to 50-50 within the grace period rather than settling on either competitor.

Traders should monitor official ATP and HSBC Championships draw announcements through mid-June, as confirmation of the main draw and subsequent match scheduling remains the primary catalyst. Injury reports for both players, particularly any late-stage withdrawals from preceding tournaments, would signal increased resolution risk. The 0% probability may shift materially once the draw is officially published and the match is formally scheduled; absence of confirmation within 48 hours of the event date would substantially increase the likelihood of a 50-50 outcome.

Methodology

We track HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.