Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Stuttgart Open grass-court tournament runs 9–15 June 2026, with Jiri Lehecka and James Duckworth scheduled to meet in an early round. The 0% implied probability reflects either a data lag, incomplete fixture confirmation, or genuine uncertainty about whether this specific pairing will materialise given draw-dependent seeding and potential withdrawals typical of grass-season scheduling.

Lehecka, a top-50 player with improving grass credentials, has won roughly 65% of matches against players ranked outside the top 100 over the past two seasons. Duckworth, an Australian journeyman now in his mid-30s, has competed sporadically on the ATP circuit and holds a career grass-court win rate near 40%. Historical matchups between players of this ranking differential typically favour the higher-ranked competitor by 25–35 percentage points, though grass surfaces introduce volatility that narrows such gaps. The 0% reading suggests the market may not yet have priced in basic tournament logistics.

Traders should monitor Stuttgart's official draw release, typically published 48 hours before play begins. Lehecka's recent form on grass and any late withdrawals will shift the fixture's likelihood. Duckworth's entry status remains worth confirming, as qualifying-round placement or injury could alter the bracket entirely. The settlement window closes 18 June, allowing a week beyond the tournament's scheduled end date to accommodate delays or unfinished matches.

Methodology

We track Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.