Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Kyrian Jacquet and Toby Samuel are scheduled to meet at the Ilkley grass-court event on 8 June 2026, with the match originally set for 5:00 AM ET. The 0% implied probability on Jacquet reflects either minimal trading activity or strong consensus around Samuel's form heading into the fixture. Grass courts at Ilkley present distinct conditions that favour certain playing styles, and recent results from either player on similar surfaces would be the primary driver of any probability shift in the coming weeks.

Historical context matters here: matches between lower-ranked or less-established players at secondary ATP or Challenger events often see sparse early trading, with probabilities remaining static until closer to the event date or following recent tournament results. Samuel's recent performances—particularly any wins or losses on grass or hard courts in May and early June—will anchor how traders reassess the matchup. Similarly, any injury updates or withdrawal announcements from either player would trigger immediate resolution or probability movement.

The settlement window closes 9 June 2026 at 09:00 UTC, giving a narrow window after the scheduled match time. Traders should monitor the official Ilkley draw confirmation, any weather delays that might push the match beyond the 7-day grace period, or late withdrawals. Recent ATP Challenger schedules and grass-court preparation tournaments in May will provide the most recent form data; check the ATP official site and tournament updates for draw confirmations and player participation confirmations as June approaches.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.