Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar

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Market context

James Duckworth, the Australian 32-year-old ranked around 65th on the ATP tour, faces Rafael Jodar of Spain in the first round of Roland Garros on 27 May 2026. The 0% implied probability reflects either minimal trading activity or a strong consensus that this match carries substantial uncertainty regarding completion. With the settlement window extending to 3 June, there is a seven-day buffer built into the resolution criteria—any delay beyond that triggers a 50-50 split.

First-round Roland Garros matches rarely cancel outright, though rain delays at the clay court venue are routine. Duckworth has competed consistently on the ATP circuit despite recurring injury setbacks; Jodar, a lower-ranked Spanish player, has limited recent Grand Slam exposure. Historical precedent suggests that when two players of this ranking tier meet in early-round clay tournaments, completion rates exceed 95%, with walkovers or retirements accounting for most non-finishes. The match structure—best of five sets—means physical durability becomes a factor, particularly for players with injury histories.

Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any late injury announcements from either camp in the 48 hours before play. Weather forecasts for the Paris region during the scheduled date matter significantly; sustained rain could push the match into the settlement window's final days. ATP injury reports and practice session updates from the tournament site will signal whether either player is compromised. The current 0% reading suggests the market has either closed to new positions or reflects extreme confidence in match completion, making any shift in that probability a signal worth tracking.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.