Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga

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Market context

Sebastian Baez and Roman Andres Burruchaga are scheduled to meet in the first round of Roland Garros ATP on 24 May 2026. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current assessment, though this early stage of the draw typically sees limited trading volume and pricing volatility as the tournament approaches. No material developments have shifted positioning in the past 48 hours; the market remains thin ahead of the official draw confirmation.

Baez, an Argentine clay-court specialist ranked in the ATP's top 100, has shown consistent performance on European red clay over recent seasons, with multiple ATP Challenger titles and regular main-draw appearances at Grand Slams. Burruchaga, also Argentine, competes primarily on the Challenger circuit and has limited ATP main-draw experience. Historical matchups between players of differing ranking tiers at Roland Garros typically see the higher-ranked player favoured, though upsets do occur in early rounds when seeding advantages are minimal or absent.

Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw release, expected in early May, which will confirm seeding and bracket positioning. Injury reports for either player in the weeks preceding the tournament represent the primary catalyst for repricing. The settlement window extends to 31 May, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date; any weather-related delays or scheduling changes at Roland Garros would be tracked through the ATP's official communications and the tournament's daily order of play announcements.

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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