Claude Mythos released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic confirmed on 26 March that Claude Mythos exists and is undergoing early access testing following an unplanned data leak. The company acknowledged the model represents a material step forward in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity capabilities. This disclosure fundamentally altered the market's information set: the model is no longer hypothetical but demonstrably in development and partially deployed. The 0% crowd probability reflects scepticism about release timing rather than the model's existence.

Historical precedent suggests caution about near-term release expectations. When OpenAI leaked details of GPT-4 ahead of schedule in early 2023, the company still took weeks to formalise the announcement and months to broaden access beyond select partners. Anthropic's own Claude 3 family took several months between initial announcements and general availability across different tiers. Extended testing phases are standard practice for capability-leading models, particularly when security and alignment considerations are paramount. The gap between "early access" and public release has historically stretched longer than initial timelines suggested.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official announcements and earnings calls for release windows, though the company has historically avoided committing to specific dates. The settlement deadline of 30 April 2026 leaves roughly one month for a formal release announcement. Any statement from Anthropic's leadership regarding Mythos availability, partnership expansions, or API access would constitute a direct catalyst. Competitor moves—particularly OpenAI or Google releasing comparable models—could accelerate Anthropic's timeline, though no such announcements have materialised recently.

Methodology

We track Claude Mythos released by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.