Claude Mythos: Coding Arena Debut?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic has not yet announced a Claude Mythos model or confirmed its addition to Arena.ai's coding leaderboard as of late December 2024. The 99% crowd probability reflects confidence that such a release will occur before the settlement window closes at year-end 2026, though no official timeline has been disclosed. The market hinges on whether Anthropic brands a future model with the "Mythos" designation and whether that model achieves a specified performance threshold on the leaderboard within 24 hours of its first appearance.

Anthropic's naming conventions provide limited precedent for predicting Mythos adoption. The company has released Claude 1, 2, 3 (with Opus, Sonnet, and Haiku variants), and 3.5 iterations without using mythological nomenclature. However, Anthropic has demonstrated willingness to experiment with model naming—the shift from numbered versions to named tiers occurred relatively recently. Competitors including OpenAI and Anthropic's own research trajectory suggest periodic rebranding or capability-tier restructuring remains plausible within a two-year window.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official announcements, research publications, and Arena.ai leaderboard updates for any model introduction bearing the Mythos label. The company typically announces major releases through its website and research channels; no scheduled announcement date is currently public. The settlement condition requires not only leaderboard appearance but also achievement of an unspecified performance score within a defined timeframe, introducing a secondary dependency beyond mere model release. Any clarification from Anthropic regarding future model families or naming schemes would materially inform the probability trajectory.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.