Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs 100 Thieves (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-7.5) vs 100 Thieves (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-6.5) vs 100 Thieves (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-9.5) vs 100 Thieves (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-8.5) vs 100 Thieves (+8.5) | 99% |
| Match Winner | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 23% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs BBL Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs BBL Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs BBL Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs BBL Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs BBL Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BBL (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: 100 thieves vs bbl esports (bo3) - esports world cup group a. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between 100 Thieves and BBL Esports in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for July 4 at 7:00AM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
We track Valorant: 100 Thieves vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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