Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire

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Active sub-markets

Market context

This upcoming FIFA World Cup fixture in Philadelphia on Thursday, 25 June pits World Cup debutant Curaçao against Côte d’Ivoire, who must win their final Group E match to reach the knockouts. In the last 48 hours, market sentiment has tightened sharply after Côte d’Ivoire’s narrow 2–1 loss to Germany, exposing defensive fragility that has dragged the crowd-implied probability for a Curaçao win down to just 6% YES.

Historically, World Cup debutants facing must-win opponents from stronger nations rarely secure victories; comparable cases like Jamaica in 1998 or Panama in 2018 saw similar single-digit probabilities for the underdog, yet both lost to nil. The 6% figure aligns with these precedents, where the gap in squad depth and tournament experience overwhelmingly favours the established side, though the “win to nil” recommendation for Côte d’Ivoire suggests the market expects a clean sheet despite recent defensive lapses[2].

Traders should monitor the official line-ups released tomorrow, as Côte d’Ivoire’s midfield rotation following the Germany clash could impact their ability to secure the required two-goal margin[3]. Additionally, any late injury news regarding Curaçao’s key striker, who scored in their historic draw, could shift the over/under dynamics significantly, with Over 3.0 Goals currently flagged as value given both teams’ attacking intent[7]. The settlement window closes at 20:00 GMT on 25 June, so all pre-match announcements must be weighed before then[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.