England vs. Costa Rica

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England face Costa Rica in a friendly fixture on 10 June 2026, with the market currently pricing an England victory at 11 per cent implied probability. The match falls within the international break preceding the 2026 World Cup group stage, where both nations will compete. Costa Rica qualified for the tournament via CONCACAF, whilst England secured their place as European qualifiers. No material fixture changes or squad announcements have shifted market sentiment in the past 48 hours, though the probability reflects the substantial gap in recent competitive form between the two sides.

Historical context suggests the current odds undervalue Costa Rica's capacity to produce results against stronger opposition. In their last World Cup appearance (2022), Costa Rica drew with Germany and defeated Japan in group play, demonstrating resilience in high-pressure environments. England's friendly record against lower-ranked opponents shows inconsistency; they drew 1–1 with Brazil in 2024 and have occasionally stumbled against sides ranked outside the top 30. The 11 per cent probability implies near-certainty for England, a positioning that historical friendly results do not entirely support.

Traders should monitor squad rotation decisions from both camps, as friendlies immediately before tournament play often feature experimental lineups. England's injury status—particularly among attacking personnel—will influence tactical setup. Costa Rica's preparation intensity and any late tactical adjustments could shift the match dynamic. Confirmation of final team sheets typically arrives 24 hours before kickoff, providing the last substantive information before settlement.

Methodology

We track England vs. Costa Rica on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.