Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| O/U 24.5 | 98% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 97% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 97% |
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| O/U 30.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 34.5 | 90% |
| O/U 32.5 | 89% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 89% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 89% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 86% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 85% |
| O/U 36.5 | 84% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Bears O/U 10.5 | 82% |
| Spread -1.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 77% |
| Spread -2.5 | 76% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 76% |
| O/U 38.5 | 74% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 73% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 69% |
| Bears 1H O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| Spread -3.5 | 67% |
| Bears O/U 16.5 | 66% |
| Bears O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| Spread -4.5 | 64% |
| O/U 42.5 | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 63% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 62% |
| Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 58% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 57% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 57% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 44.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Bears O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Bears O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bears 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 21+ | 50% |
| Safety? | 50% |
| Bears Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bears vs. Packers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bears Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 7-12 | 49% |
| O/U 46.5 | 48% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 48% |
| Spread -8.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| Bears O/U 12.5 | 45% |
| Bears O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Bears 2H O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 43% |
| O/U 48.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| Bears O/U 20.5 | 40% |
| Spread -10.5 | 39% |
| Bears 1H O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| O/U 50.5 | 33% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| O/U 52.5 | 32% |
| Spread -13.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Spread -19.5 | 30% |
| Exact Margin: Bears by 25+ | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Bears O/U 23.5 | 27% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Bears vs. Packers | 23% |
| O/U 54.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -17.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| O/U 58.5 | 17% |
| Spread -1.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Bears O/U 26.5 | 17% |
| Bears O/U 27.5 | 17% |
| Spread -2.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Bears 1H O/U 10.5 | 16% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Bears 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 12% |
| Spread -21.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 60.5 | 10% |
| Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| O/U 64.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 7% |
| Spread -4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -5.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -6.5 | 6% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 6% |
| Bears 1H O/U 13.5 | 6% |
| O/U 68.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Bears 1H O/U 19.5 | 5% |
| O/U 66.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -7.5 | 3% |
| Spread -8.5 | 3% |
| Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 3% |
| Spread -10.5 | 2% |
| Spread -13.5 | 2% |
| Spread -21.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 2% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 2% |
| Spread -14.5 | 1% |
| Spread -16.5 | 1% |
| Spread -17.5 | 1% |
| Spread -20.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 1% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to bears vs. packers. In the upcoming NFL football game between Bears and Packers, scheduled for October 11 at 4:25PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bears" if Bears win the game. This market will resolve to "Packers" if …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.8M.
Methodology
We track Bears vs. Packers across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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