Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Nationals host the Guardians on 27 May at 1:10 PM ET, with the market currently pricing Washington at 39 per cent. This is a midweek divisional matchup in late May, when both teams will have played roughly 50 games and established baseline form. The settlement window extends to 3 June, allowing for postponement resolution if weather or scheduling disrupts the original fixture.

Cleveland's recent record against Washington provides useful calibration. The Guardians have won 11 of their last 15 matchups against the Nationals across the past two seasons, suggesting the 39 per cent probability for Washington may underweight the visiting team's competitive edge. The Guardians' pitching depth and defensive metrics have consistently outperformed the Nationals' this season, a structural advantage that typically persists across short series. However, home-field advantage in May baseball—particularly in afternoon games—historically narrows such gaps by 3–5 percentage points.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, typically confirmed 24–48 hours before first pitch. Cleveland's rotation health and Washington's recent offensive output against right-handed starters are the primary variables. Weather forecasts for Washington DC on 27 May will matter; afternoon games are sensitive to temperature and wind direction, which can shift run-scoring expectations by 0.3–0.5 runs per side. Any late roster moves or injury updates to key position players will also shift the probability, though neither team has reported significant absences as of late May.

Methodology

This page reviews Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.