New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees face the Detroit Tigers in a regular-season MLB game at Comerica Park on 23 June, with the crowd-implied probability of a Yankees win sitting at 41% despite bookmakers listing them as favourites (-114) and the over/under set at eight runs[3]. This 41% figure reflects a sharp 24-hour shift: the Yankees’ recent pitching form has wavered, while Tigers starter Casey Mize posted a 2.55 ERA against the Yankees last season, a historical comparable that often drags the favourite’s win probability below 50% in mid-June matchups[6].

Traders should monitor Carlos Rodón’s latest health update, as his 3.13 ERA over four starts could swing the outcome if he is confirmed for the mound, and watch for any late-inning bullpen announcements from both clubs before the 6:40pm ET start[6]. The YES Network and MLB.TV will carry live coverage, so any real-time injury reports or weather delays broadcast there will be the primary catalyst for probability movement[4]. With the settlement window ending 30 June 2026, postponed games remain open, but a cancellation or tie resolves the market 50-50, making Rodón’s availability the critical dependency[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.