Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

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Market context

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are set to play their postponed MLB game at Citi Field in Queens, with the original June 22, 7:10 p.m. ET contest now awaiting a restart date[2]. The Cubs (40-37) hold a clear win record advantage over the Mets (34-43), yet the market assigns only a 47% chance to the Cubs winning, suggesting the delay has introduced uncertainty about pitching rotations or weather conditions that may favour the home side[1].

Historically, when a game between teams with a six-win record gap is postponed mid-series, the home team’s implied probability often rises by 3–5% due to restored familiarity with local conditions and bullpen availability; comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show the Mets gaining similar edges after delays against the Cubs[1]. This pattern frames the current 47% Cubs probability as slightly conservative, implying the market may be underweighting the Cubs’ road resilience or overreacting to the postponement’s timing.

Traders should monitor the official MLB announcement for the new game date, as a restart within 48 hours would likely stabilise the Cubs’ probability near 50%, while a delay beyond three days could shift odds toward the Mets[2]. Key catalysts include Shota Imanaga’s recent form—he has not allowed a home run in his last two starts after a rough previous stretch—and Brett Baty’s offensive surge, which could swing momentum if the game resumes quickly[8]. The SNY broadcast schedule and MLB.TV coverage will confirm the final start time once announced[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.