MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 0% implied probability for the 2026 AL Cy Young market reflects a premature settlement window rather than a lack of contenders, as the season is still in its early innings and no pitcher has yet dominated the award criteria. With Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet leading opening odds at DraftKings, the market currently lacks the performance data required to assign meaningful value to any single candidate[1]. This zero-probability stance is a mechanical artifact of the current date, June 23, 2026, where the award remains entirely theoretical until the season concludes in November.

Historically, similar early-season markets for Cy Young awards have shown negligible implied probabilities until mid-August, when pitcher performance metrics like ERA and innings pitched stabilise enough to differentiate contenders. In 2024, the AL Cy Young market only gained traction after Skubal’s dominant stretch in July, which shifted odds from +400 to the eventual winner[1]. Comparable cases show that award probabilities often remain flat until the second half of the season, when injury risks and workload management create clear separation between top pitchers.

Traders should monitor upcoming rotation schedules and injury reports, as a single pitcher’s breakout stretch or a rival’s early-season injury could drastically shift the market. Recent news from MLB Stories highlights Woodruff’s dominant return and Harper’s cycle, indicating that pitcher performance is still volatile and unpredictable[2]. Key catalysts include the All-Star break announcements, mid-season rotation changes, and the FanGraphs projected stats updates, which will provide the first real data points for award contenders[2]. Watch for any sudden shifts in odds from BetMGM or DraftKings, as these often signal emerging frontrunners before the market fully adjusts[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.