LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Solary and Galions will contest the EMEA Masters League of Legends Grand Final on 15 June, with the winner claiming the regional title. The 56% implied probability favouring Solary reflects their positioning as the stronger regular-season performer, though the best-of-five format introduces volatility that compressed odds may understate. Settlement hinges on match completion by 21:00 UTC; any cancellation, tie, or unresolved delay beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 split.

EMEA Masters Grand Finals historically favour teams with consistent domestic league pedigree and recent playoff momentum. Solary's path through the bracket and regular-season record typically correlate with Grand Final success rates around 60–65% when seeded higher, suggesting the current probability sits within expected range rather than representing a significant mispricing. Galions' presence in the final indicates they've overcome regional competition, but underdog Grand Final runs in League esports rarely exceed 45% win probability when facing established favourites.

Traders should monitor roster stability announcements through mid-June, as player absences or technical issues could trigger the forfeiture clause. The scheduled 11:00 ET start time (15:00 UTC) provides a six-hour buffer before settlement; any broadcast delays or technical stoppages will be critical to track. Recent EMEA Masters broadcasts have maintained schedule adherence, reducing cancellation risk, though weather or infrastructure issues affecting the venue remain low-probability wildcards worth monitoring in the final 48 hours.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.